Expert: Istanbul, prone to earthquakes, is not at increased risk

Since the disaster on February 6 that struck Turkey and Syria, fears of a huge earthquake have returned to Istanbul, but a well-known Turkish seismologist has reassured that the risk "hasn't increased."

According to Dogan Kalafat, the director of the Istanbul-based Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring Center at the Kandilli Observatory, "the risk hasn't increased because we are talking about fundamentally different systems."

While the previous 7.8-magnitude earthquake that killed 43,500 people occurred along a different fault in the country's southeast, Turkiye's most populous city is located close to the North Anatolian Fault, Kalafat stated.

Kalafat, who has criticised using subpar cement and constructing on "soft soils," stated, "I'd like to say it, but alas, it's a very huge metropolis with too many poorly constructed structures."

We need to make the most of our free time as we wait for a significant earthquake. On the stable ground, we must construct earthquake-resistant homes. The seismologist emphasised that this precaution was the most crucial to take.

Every eight hours, seismologists at the observatory alternately watch a number of computer screens that are used to track prospective tremors.

A massive screen in front of them displays real-time readings from 260 seismic stations located all over the nation on a wall that is at least five metres (16 feet) tall.

Since February 6, there have been 9,000 aftershocks in Turkiye, which is more than "seven or eight times average," according to Kalafat.

A laminated chart on one of the desks displays the North Anatolian Fault as crossing the Sea of Marmara only "15 to 17 kilometres" from Istanbul's southern coasts, according to Kalafat.

Two years after a 7.4-magnitude earthquake that killed 17,000 people in northwest Turkey, Kalafat determined that there was a 65% chance that another earthquake of a magnitude greater than 7 will strike the same area, which includes Istanbul, before 2030.

In 50 years, the danger increased to 75 percent, and in 90 years, it rose to 95 percent.