China Wants a Larger role in the Middle East- Why?

 Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a deal to resume diplomatic relations, overshadowing China's annual "Two Sessions".

The Chinese government has two objectives in facilitating a breakthrough in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. First, to reflect China's status as a great power and a responsible nation and to mark a major success for Xi Jinping's vision of "a community with a shared future of mankind." Second, to demonstrate China's capabilities to the United States and demonstrate that the United States is powerless to halt China's development.

The diplomatic landscape in the Middle East is improving, according to China. At least five years ago, Xi attempted to mediate peace negotiations between Palestine and Israel. He put forth a four-point position statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Beijing also hosted seminars at least four times with academics and politicians from Israel and Palestine.

Iran, China, and the Arab world have recently maintained regular communications. GCC nations were invited to a meeting in China by Xi last year. The first summit between China and Arab states was then held while Xi was in Saudi Arabia.

Since then, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Beijing in the middle of February, and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua of China visited Iran. Authorities allegedly consulted Raisi during his trip about China mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and he agreed. Iran is clearly under the influence of China.

Xi has consequently been gradually getting more deeply involved in the Middle East issue when seen in a larger context. This method is obvious. Beijing's cordial relations with all parties, also demonstrate that China is a qualified and suitable broker in the Middle East issue.

The diplomatic breakthrough was undoubtedly based on numerous meetings held in Oman and Iraq to resolve several fundamental issues between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, China's ability to complete the mediation process between Saudi Arabia and Iran is primarily due to its greater influence on Iran than on other nations.

For instance, when communicating with the United Arab Emirates, China brought up the three disputed islands in the Gulf, infuriating Iran. Nevertheless, the Iranian president made plans to visit China as soon as possible. It demonstrates that despite a perceived slight, Iran cannot ignore Chinese influence.

In light of this, China will probably play a significant role in reviving the Iran nuclear deal in the future, but this will be more challenging than mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The conflict between the United States and Iran is at the heart of the Iranian nuclear issue. Since the U.S. and China currently have a strained relationship, Beijing will find it challenging to serve as a conduit for communication between Washington and Tehran. However, if China is willing to lead on this matter, it could be beneficial for Sino-US relations.

China undoubtedly has a significant impact on the Middle East issue, primarily due to its influence over Iran. Iran may not even follow China's plan for the country even then. It depends on several variables, including Iran's capacity, the state of relations between the Iranian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's acceptance of Chinese rewards, the evolution of Iran's internal situation, and the views of the United States and Israel. Many of these variables are challenging for China to manage.

In that regard, I don't have a lot of hope for the future of the Saudi-Iran deal. Depending on Iran's behavior, this agreement may last for a while. Iran must refrain from inciting Saudi Arabia with its nuclear program, supporting Houthi and Iraqi Shiite militant attacks, accusing Saudi Arabia of meddling in its internal affairs, discriminating against domestic Arabs, and denouncing Saudi Arabia's cooperation with the US and Israel if it wants the diplomatic breakthrough to last. Only then will the two parties' relationship advance.

Are Iranians eager to truly reconcile, especially the IRGC? Considering that Iran and Saudi Arabia have previously severed diplomatic ties three times, it is clear that religious inconsistencies and political conflict are the roots of the issue. It will take more than a few months for mediation to successfully resolve this issue.

The Chinese government is likely to exert some pressure on Saudi Arabia and Iran to bring about peace, but Iran may be the target of greater pressure. The relationship between China and Iran will also be put at risk if there is trouble with the agreement in the future, leading to Tehran and Riyadh blaming one another.

To be recognized as a major nation, China must take a more active role as a broker in the Middle East and the international community. China will undoubtedly become more well-known on the international stage if it can help bring about peace in the Middle East. It will be an even bigger diplomatic success if Iran can change its hostile policy towards Israel because China may influence Iran.

Of course, the United States also plays a role in these diplomatic developments. The three parties involved have a common objective: to agitate the United States, or at the very least, get Washington's attention, so this agreement could be reached quickly.

That being said, rather than simply being surprised, alarmed, and doubtful, the United States should approach China's role in the world with objectivity. China and the United States do have competing interests in the Middle East, but there is also room for cooperation.

For instance, both parties share interests in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. In the future, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and other parties involved in the security of the Middle East may be urged to form a larger security agreement by China and the United States working together. This implies that the triangular agreement between China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will grow.

The diplomatic process will still go on if the United States passes up that chance and keeps attempting to contain China in the Middle East. However, Americans will be excluded. Therefore, Washington officials should use their concerns about China as motivation for cooperation: it is better to cooperate with China than to fall behind.

My knowledge indicates that China will undoubtedly snare any olive branch the United States extends. In a similar vein, the United States need not be skeptical if China extends its hand in peace.

There will be a lot of new opportunities for the two sides to work together on various global issues. Utilizing those chances to collaborate will also aid in the development of mutual trust between the two nations and the settling of disagreements in bilateral relations.