How Trump’s Election Victory Can Shape the U.S.-Middle east Relationship

 

If Trump returns to the White House, he will inherit a region more volatile than ever, with Israel in the center of his Middle East focus. During his first term, Trump championed Israel, solidifying ties and supporting its claims over disputed territories. This loyalty to Israel has earned him favor among certain voter groups, but it also raises questions about his commitment to broader regional peace.

Trump’s vocal support of Israel aligns closely with the priorities of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who benefits politically from Trump’s endorsement. Netanyahu faces challenges at home, especially with his coalition pushing for a hardline stance on Gaza. A Trump presidency may embolden Netanyahu’s plans, possibly supporting Israel’s aggressive tactics against Hezbollah and Hamas. This alignment could strain relations with neighboring Arab countries that have warned against escalation in Gaza.

One of Trump’s achievements was facilitating normalization agreements between Israel and Arab nations, known as the Abraham Accords. Yet, these deals did not advance Palestinian interests, a critical omission for any lasting peace. If Trump ignores the Palestinian question once again, he risks alienating Arab leaders who insist that peace with Israel must also address Palestinian statehood.

Trump’s approach to Israel’s security also has implications for U.S. military involvement. Under his presidency, the U.S. provided strong military backing to Israel, even deploying air defense systems in the region. If Trump returns, similar measures might be expected, possibly increasing U.S. presence in the Middle East. However, this runs counter to his "America First" stance, which advocates for reducing foreign entanglements.

A second Trump term may face challenges if international courts pursue war crime investigations against Israel. Trump could potentially oppose these efforts, citing U.S. sovereignty concerns, but this could generate backlash from human rights groups. Balancing unconditional support for Israel with global calls for accountability could become a sticking point in Trump’s foreign policy.

Trump’s vision for the Middle East, while pro-Israel, lacks clarity on issues beyond supporting Netanyahu’s objectives. Whether he will push for a sustainable resolution or prioritize short-term gains for Israel remains a question. Observers wonder if Trump’s commitment to peace will involve tough compromises, or if his loyalty to Israel will overshadow other regional concerns.