Egypt’s Strategic Military Support to Somalia: Fueling Regional Tensions with Ethiopia

 

In a significant geopolitical maneuver, Egypt has delivered a second substantial cache of weaponry to Somalia, including anti-aircraft guns and artillery. This move underscores Egypt’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa and its strategic alliance with Somalia, both of which share a mutual mistrust of Ethiopia. The delivery, confirmed by Egyptian and Somali officials, is likely to escalate tensions in the region, particularly in light of Egypt’s long-standing conflict with Ethiopia over the Nile River dam and its broader regional ambitions.

According to Egypt’s Foreign Ministry, the latest shipment, which arrived in the Somali capital Mogadishu, is intended to bolster the capabilities of the Somali National Army. The ministry emphasized that this military aid reaffirms Egypt’s central role in supporting Somalia’s quest for security, stability, and development. This shipment marks the second major arms delivery from Egypt to Somalia in recent months, with the first occurring in August. Notably, this represents Egypt’s most significant military support to Somalia in over four decades.

The increasing military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia stems from both countries’ concerns over Ethiopia's actions. Earlier this year, Somalia and Egypt formalized their security partnership by signing a joint security pact. Since then, Egypt has sent several shipments of arms to Somalia, further strengthening the alliance. This latest delivery, carried out by an Egyptian warship, involved extensive security measures, with Mogadishu's quayside and surrounding roads blocked off to facilitate the safe transfer of weapons to Somali military bases.

Tensions with Ethiopia: The Role of Somaliland

One of the main sources of tension between Somalia and Ethiopia is the breakaway region of Somaliland. In January, Ethiopia struck a preliminary deal with Somaliland to lease land for a port in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence from Somalia. This move deeply angered Somalia, which views the agreement as an assault on its sovereignty. Somalia has since called for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops stationed in the country under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), where 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers are involved in peacekeeping efforts. Additionally, between 5,000 and 7,000 Ethiopian soldiers are deployed in Somalia under a bilateral agreement.

Somalia has made it clear that unless Ethiopia cancels its deal with Somaliland, it will demand the complete withdrawal of Ethiopian troops by the end of the year. The increasing friction between Somalia and Ethiopia has further complicated regional dynamics, with Egypt aligning itself firmly behind Somalia in its opposition to Ethiopia’s actions.

Egypt's Opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

The tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia extend beyond the Somaliland issue and are deeply rooted in the long-standing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt has consistently voiced concerns that the dam, which is being constructed on the Blue Nile, poses a significant threat to its water security. The Nile River, which originates in Ethiopia, is Egypt’s primary water source, and any disruption to its flow could have catastrophic consequences for Egypt’s economy and population.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has made it clear that Cairo will not tolerate any threats to Somalia’s security or sovereignty, reinforcing Egypt’s stance in its regional conflicts. In January, during a joint press conference with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, el-Sisi declared that Egypt stands “shoulder to shoulder” with Somalia and will not allow any external forces to threaten its ally.

Military Presence and Peacekeeping Offers

In addition to its military aid, Egypt has also offered to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia, as confirmed by the African Union in July. While Egypt has not made any public comments on this offer, its involvement in peacekeeping efforts would further solidify its role as a key regional player in Somalia’s security landscape. As Egypt continues to provide military and diplomatic support to Somalia, its actions are likely to heighten tensions not only with Ethiopia but also within the broader Horn of Africa, a region already fraught with political and security challenges.