Israel’s government collapse offers a comeback for Netanyahu

 Israel's government has fallen apart, and the Knesset, or parliament, will be dissolved by Wednesday at midnight, in what has come to feel like a familiar tale.

This opens the door for the fifth election in three years after the country's most diverse and unusual coalition, which included centrists, right-wingers, left-wingers, and even Islamists, hit a point of impasse after just one year of existence.

Israel held four elections over the course of two years before that coalition was established, with each one being close enough to necessitate a second vote. Benjamin Netanyahu, the nation's longest-serving prime minister, was ousted from office after 12 years during Israel's most recent cabinet formation process, which took place almost exactly one year ago.

According to some analysts, Israel's current situation shows the growing polarization in the nearly 9 million-person nation in the Middle East as well as sharply divergent perspectives on the country's future. But it also gives Netanyahu, whose right-wing Likud party is doing well in local polls, a potential second chance. The fall is when elections will take place.

In a speech last week, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a member of the far-right and a former settler leader, declared that "we did everything we could to protect this government, whose survival we consider a national interest."

Another chance for Bibi?

"Israeli citizens received fantastic news last evening. The outgoing coalition was criticized for a number of things, "the former prime minister declared after the news was made public on June 21. The government is leaving.

In Israeli politics, the 72-year-old Netanyahu is a divisive figure who is frequently referred to as "either you love him or you loathe him." When he refused to resign last year while being under investigation for several corruption charges, he angered many members of his own party. Despite the charges against him, there is no statute in place that would prevent him from returning to his position as prime minister. His trial is already underway and might last for several years.

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued in a commentary for the think tank that it is best not to underestimate Netanyahu. Miller wrote. "Netanyahu's return is by no means inevitable — it's still early — but if his political career has shown anything over the years, it's that it's best not to underestimate him," Miller wrote.

According to Miller, "Netanyahu wants the position more than any other Israeli politician and is willing to say and do just about anything to obtain it." He also noted that this is a question of personal survival for the Likud party leader, who is now in office.

Assessing the competition

In Israel, a party needs to gain a majority of 61 seats in Parliament, known as the "magic number," in order to form the government. If that is not possible, the party with the most seats must bargain with other parties.

This frequently leads to quite strange bedfellows, as seen in Israel’s most recent cabinet. Even while the coalition was successful in passing a significant budget and strengthening ties with the Biden administration, it ran into trouble when it came to Israeli-Palestinian issues due to the rise in violence between Israelis and Palestinians.

According to Assaf Shapira, director of the Political Reform Program at the Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank based in Jerusalem, the public discourse is moving in the same way as it did during prior elections.

Endless elections

President Joe Biden's trip to the Middle East in July, during which he plans to visit Israel, will be a significant event to follow.

The Israeli prime minister, who in the past has defied the Obama administration to increase Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory, was not a favorite of the Biden campaign. Even though the White House has stated that it will cooperate with whichever administration is chosen, commentators in Washington predict that during Biden's visit, Biden will make an effort to improve Lapid's reputation.

Of course, neither a Netanyahu-led nor a Lapid-led administration can be assumed to prevail. Israel may easily keep getting into complicated coalition administrations, more leadership changes, additional elections, just like in the previous three years, and a deeply divided voter base.

Shapira argued that Netanyahu in particular is so controversial that a victory for him might only result in a continuation of the cycle.

There aren't many alternative Likud leaders openly opposing Netanyahu, he claimed. "There are good chances for another election, and another election, if it's still Netanyahu."