The hanging deal about Iran’s nuclear weapons

Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers hangs as the country prepares to vote on Friday for a new president. The diplomats make efforts to get both the US and Tehran to reenter the accord. This nuclear deal collapsed after former US President Donald Trump took office, leading to a series of attacks and confrontations across the wider Middle East. The deal represents the signature accomplishment of the relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani’s eight years in office: suspending crushing sanctions in exchange for the strict monitoring and limiting of Iran’s uranium stockpile.

Withdrawal of the deal prompted Tehran to enrich uranium to the highest purity levels so far, just shy of weapons-grade levels. As polling suggests that candidates already targeted by US sanctions will win Friday’s vote, hence, the deal may be possible but it likely won’t lead to a further detente between Iran and the West.

An election analyst says, that it is certainly not as complex as drafting a deal from scratch, which is what the sides did that resulted in the 2015 deal. But there’s still a lot of details that need to be worked out. He thinks a lot of domestic politics go into this and interest from hard-liners, including the supreme leader, to ensure that their favored candidate wins without any significant disruptions to that process.

With no other motive, Tehran keeps on insisting its program is for peaceful purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran pursued an organized nuclear weapons program up until 2003. And if Iran’s nuclear motives remain unchecked then it is just a matter of time that a massive breakout will hover around. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that for the international community and specifically for the United States putting the nuclear program back into a box is critical. It’s important because, beyond the nuclear agreement, the negotiators are ultimately hoping to lengthen and strengthen the deal. And so you can’t even get there until the current deal is stabilized. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has no access to its surveillance cameras at Iranian nuclear sites since late February, nor data from its online enrichment monitors and electronic seals. Iran also restarted enrichment at a hardened underground facility and is building more centrifuge halls underground, after two attacks suspected to have been carried out by Israel.