Northern Ireland looks set for the most unpredictable general election in its history

With the names of the candidates for this year’s general election finalized, Northern Ireland looks set to have an uncharacteristically unpredictable election, with seemingly competitive races in 10 of its 18 constituencies. The chart above shows the results of this week’s new LucidTalk poll, compared with the poll from August this year and previous election results. It suggests that support for Sinn Féin and the DUP has fallen back from levels at previous elections, and that Alliance have built on their strong showing at the local elections even if their support has fallen since the summer.  It’s worth noting that this poll was conducted before the announcement of the various pacts and Sylvia Hermon’s announcement that she won’t be seeking re-election in North Down. Among Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies, there are eight that are foregone conclusions. These are Sinn Féin’s seats in West Belfast, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster and Newry & Armagh, and the DUP seats in North Antrim, East Londonderry, Upper Bann and Lagan Valley.  The last two of these could, in theory, be seen as targets for Sinn Féin and Alliance respectively, but the prospects of the DUP losing either in this electoral cycle are extremely remote. There are competitive races in three Belfast seats at this election. In the charts below, I’ve broken down party support for elections since 2010, as well as the “bloc” (i.e. nationalist, unionist, or other) that parties use (or independent candidates would use) to designate themselves at the Northern Ireland Assembly. There are, of course, valid objections to banding parties together in this way, but it should give a reasonable idea of the voting profile of each constituency. The “nationalist” group includes the SDLP, Sinn Féin, minor nationalist parties and nationalist independents; the “unionist” group includes the DUP, the UUP, the TUV, minor unionist parties and unionist independents; and the “other” group includes Alliance, the Green Party, People Before Profit, other minor parties and other independents.  Council results have been re-allocated from council DEAs to Westminster constituencies. The chart below shows the vote for each bloc for all of Northern Ireland since 2010. The nationalist and unionist vote has been essentially neck and neck over the last three elections. This year is unique in that the SDLP aren’t running in the constituency. The SDLP polled poorly at the last general election and the combined SDLP and Sinn Féin total wouldn’t have exceeded Nigel Dodds’ vote (albeit by only 23 votes), and it can’t be assumed that all of the SDLP votes will transfer to Finucane. At both the 2015 and 2017 general elections, the “others” voting bloc was squeezed in North Belfast, but it appears that the Sinn Féin and the DUP benefited equally from this. The contest in North Belfast is likely to be very close. The nationalist, unionist and other voting blocs in South Belfast are all roughly the same size, and it is an unusual example of a seat where the nationalist vote has fallen significantly the course of the decade. Despite the growth of the non-aligned vote, Claire Hanna of the SDLP is the strong favourite to win the seat, given that Sinn Féin are not running and she has been endorsed by Green Party MLA Clare Bailey. Despite Alliance being (just about) the largest party at this year’s local elections, the DUP are probably favourites to retain the seat, but it will be a very competitive race. However, East Belfast doesn’t present the best chance for Alliance to win a Westminster seat, as this can be found in neighbouring North Down.

As with Strangford, there has been significant growth in the non-aligned vote since 2010, and Alliance have a chance if the DUP vote falls back to 2015 levels. Wilson only received 36% of the vote in 2015, albeit the TUV and Ukip polled 17% between them at that election, neither of whom are running this year. Realistically, if Alliance can put down a marker here by exceeding 25% of the vote, they may be placing themselves well to contest the seat in (possibly) 2024.