FinPol Digest

Philippine shares retreated on Thursday after two sessions of sharp gains, while financials dragged the Singapore benchmark lower ahead of manufacturing data due later in the day. Trading in most Southeast Asian markets, however, was below a third of their 30-day average volume as traders settled in for year-end holidays. The Manila bourse. PSI fell 0.7%, the most in the region, weighed down by banking and real estate stocks. Financial markets in the Philippines were closed on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the index gained almost 3% in the previous two trading sessions. Real estate firms SM Prime Holdings SMPH.PS and Ayala Land ALI.PS fell 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, while BDO Unibank BDO.PS lost as much as 1.6%. Singapore's benchmark index. STI was on course to snap three straight sessions of gains, hurt by weakness in blue-chip banking stocks. Southeast Asia's biggest lender DBS Group Holdings DBSM.SI slid as much as 0.7%. The trade-reliant city-state's ma...

Automobile bosses had been entreated to offer ‘watertight assurances’ over the diagram forward for five,600 workers within the UK following the £38billion mega-merger between PSA Community and Fiat Chrysler. The French owner of Peugeot and Vauxhall is situation to affix forces with Italian rival Fiat to make the realm’s third-perfect automotive manufacturer by income, and the fourth-perfect by series of autos provided. But the deal has sparked fears over the diagram forward for hundreds of jobs, alongside side at the Vauxhall plant in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire, the save 1,100 workers originate the Astra. PSA Community is situation to affix forces with Italian rival Fiat to make the realm’s third-perfect automotive manufacturer by income, and the fourth-perfect by series of autos provided Bosses the day gone by acknowledged no vegetation would perchance be shut as a outcomes of the deal, which is ready to permit the two companies to fragment the massive cost of switching to e...

The economy shrunk year-on-year in the second quarter, weighed on by an unexpected contraction in the non-mining and quarrying sector, and a steep fall in mining and quarrying output. Turning to the third quarter, the economy should have improved but will have remained subdued nonetheless. Industrial production output strengthened in Q3, which bodes well for the hydrocarbon and manufacturing sectors.  The value of merchandise exports, however, tumbled in Q3, due to lower prices for oil and gas compared to the same period last year. In other news, Qatar is expected to implement sweeping labor reforms in January next year.  The reforms include establishing a non-discriminatory minimum wage, removing permits to exit the country and freedom to change employers, which should support wages and private consumption in turn. Qatar’s economic freedom score is 72.6, making its economy the 28th freest in the 2019 Index. Its overall score is unchanged this year, with higher score...

Macau has long provided Chinese leaders with a glimmering showcase for the virtues of obeying Beijing.The former Portuguese colony has marched on to become the world’s largest gambling hub over the past few decades, surpassing its more rebellious brother Hong Kong along the way.  President Xi Jinping is expected to use a visit marking 20 years of Chinese rule over Macau this week to send a message to the protest-stricken financial hub some 50 kilometers (30 miles) to the east: work with us and get rich.“Jobs are chasing after Macau people, instead of the other way around,” said Alexandra, a 29-year-old human resources worker in Macau, who declined to give her last name.  “Young people can see a much brighter future here than in Hong Kong. They are indifferent, or even cold toward politics.”During his visit, Xi will likely highlight a raft of recent policies intended to help diversify Macau’s tourism industry while -- in a possible signal to Hong Kong -- establishing a ...

Asian shares made guarded gains on Monday as investors dared to hope for some progress in the endless Sino-U.S. trade dispute, while the outperformance of recent U.S. economic data gave the dollar a leg up on its peers. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan bounced 0.8%, after losing 0.4% last week. Japan’s Nikkei firmed 0.9%, while Australian stocks rose 0.5% and Shanghai blue chips 0.4%. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 added 0.3%, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.6%. On Saturday, U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien said an initial trade agreement with China is still possible by the end of the year, though he warned Washington would not turn a blind eye to what happens in Hong Kong. The comments add to worries that a Chinese crackdown on anti-government protests in Hong Kong could further complicate the talks. Over the weekend, pro-democracy candidates in Hong Kong romped to a landslide and symbolic majority in district council electi...

The man is the message. Of the many lessons about contemporary European politics one can draw from Boris Johnson’s resounding election victory, the most important might also the most obvious: personality rules. Even though the election campaign left little doubt that the Brexit divide in the U.K. still runs deep, the one thing most Brits do appear to agree on is that for all his antics (or maybe because of them), they generally like Johnson. Polls in the run-up to the election consistently showed that the prime minister was better liked across almost all demographics than Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Of course, likeability has always been a factor in voter choices. Yet in the past, Europe’s charismatic politicians (at least the democratic ones) were first and foremost representatives of an ideal, a political program and, above all, a party of the like-minded. In other words, they stood for more than a single issue, be it Brexit or opposition to migration. Think Margaret T...

With the names of the candidates for this year’s general election finalized, Northern Ireland looks set to have an uncharacteristically unpredictable election, with seemingly competitive races in 10 of its 18 constituencies. The chart above shows the results of this week’s new LucidTalk poll, compared with the poll from August this year and previous election results. It suggests that support for Sinn Féin and the DUP has fallen back from levels at previous elections, and that Alliance have built on their strong showing at the local elections even if their support has fallen since the summer.  It’s worth noting that this poll was conducted before the announcement of the various pacts and Sylvia Hermon’s announcement that she won’t be seeking re-election in North Down. Among Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies, there are eight that are foregone conclusions. These are Sinn Féin’s seats in West Belfast, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster and Newry & Armagh, and the DUP seats in Nor...

The first day of the conference was marked by the official launch of three EU-funded ambitious multi-year programmes with a total amount of EUR 28 million, that aim to support trade, rule of law as well as investments and growth in Central Asia. A two-day conference on “Enhanced integration and Prosperity in Central Asia” opened in Kazakhstan’s capital Nur-Sultan on Thursday (28 November), coinciding with a summit of the leaders of the five Central Asian countries on Friday in Tashkent, the capital of neighbouring Uzbekistan. The conference in Nur-Sultan was organised by the EU delegation in Kazakhstan and had in its title the keyword “integration” – not exactly to the taste of all countries of the region, which prefer the less binding term “cooperation”. The five countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are all former Soviet republics but each followed its own path after the collapse of the USSR. In 2018, a rather discrete...

The US has said it may increase tariffs after the EU lost its case at the WTO. The US claimed that loans made by the EU to Airbus for the development of the A380 and other aircraft represented an unfair advantage. The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Monday dismissed European Union suggestions that the bloc no longer subsidizes Airbus, the Europe-based multinational aerospace corporation. As a responsive measure to the WTO's conclusion, the United States said it could impose tariffs on a broader range of European goods, as it seeks to assert its authority in the long lasting dispute between the world's two principle constructors of airplanes — Airbus and Boeing. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that the financial help the EU affords the European plane-maker does serious damage to the US aerospace industry. In October of this year, the US imposed a record $7.5 billion (€6.8 billion) in levies on annual EU imports as part of its case against Airbus. The...

Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov said that "Mr. Yaroshenko suffers from numerous medical and dental problems, including post-traumatic mental health issues caused by the abuse" Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov has called on the largest human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, to provide medical and legal assistance to Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko jailed in the US. On Thursday, Antonov wrote an open letter to several human rights organizations in the US that was released by the Russian Embassy in Washington. "Mr. Yaroshenko applied three times for a prisoner transfer to Russia to serve the remainder of his sentence in Russia pursuant to Convention on the Transfer of Sentenced Persons. His requests were unreasonably denied," he added. Russian Ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, has asked prominent international human rights groups to help settle medical and leg...

The government of South Korea has passed a bill indicating that a comprehensive cryptocurrency regulation will be coming to the country in the near future. The country itself is very blockchain-friendly, considering the number of blockchain startups and crypto exchanges that are registered in Seoul, the capital. The past regulatory discussions have always been in favour of the blockchain as well. The South Korean government was more than keen on making a blockchain-powered city. They agreed on this notion and chose Busan as their primary target. The main goal was to somehow increase blockchain tourism, meaning that every crypto investor would be able to visit Busan during any season and survive on nothing else than Bitcoin, Ethereum and etc. However, the country was facing serious privacy issues when the government was blocking any transaction made without ID verification. This was encroaching on the very foundation of the blockchain technology, but it seems to have been reso...

One major player in the cryptocurrency industry has just moved 257,491 ETH — valued at almost $35M at the time of writing. The total fee for the Ethereum transaction was just $0.07. One Ethereum whale in the market seems to be consolidating its funds in a major move that set off alarm bells. Whale Alert (@whale_alert) picked up on a $35M transfer earlier today, which entailed the movement of a whopping 257,491 ETH. The total fee for the transaction was a paltry $0.07 (0.000462 ETH). The fact that tens of millions of dollars can be transacting on Ethereum for pennies speaks to the strength of its network. The recipient address appears to be relatively new, only being active for just a few months. The first transaction to the address was a mere ‘test’ of 0.2 ETH received. In the past few days, the whale was also sending small chunks of 1,300 ETH or so to the address — until finally sending a larger ETH stash this morning. The sending address has been completely cleaned out of...

The European Central Bank could take action including a possible rate cut at its policy meeting on Thursday, as central banks around the globe rev up stimulus to support the world economy through a period of heightened uncertainty from trade wars and Brexit. The ECB, which sets interest rates for the 19 European Union member countries that use the euro, is expected by many analysts to at least tweak its promise to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels into next year. The new wording would emphasize that the next move down the road could be a cut. But a rate cut Thursday is not out of the question either — even though one of the rate benchmarks is already below zero.  That would see the ECB moving ahead of an expected rate reduction from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has an outsized role due to the size of the U.S. economy and the dollar’s status as an international currency for borrowing and trade. Fed officials have signaled they may cut rates at their July 30-31 m...

“This is a new government,” Boris Johnson said as he launched the Conservatives’ manifesto today. It was a revealing comment. He wants voters to think he offers the change they want, so they don’t have to gamble on Jeremy Corbyn’s radical “real change”. By referring to his 120 days as prime minister, Johnson invites people to believe that nine years of Tory rule have nothing to do with him – even though he has been an MP for half of the austerity era that began in 2010. (The man David Cameron once called a “greased piglet” got away with it again on the BBC’s Question Time on Friday, when Jo Swinson unfairly had a much harder time on austerity because of the Liberal Democrats’ role in the coalition). There was more clear blue water between Johnson and his Tory predecessors today. Theresa May’s 2017 programme proved the maxim that manifestos rarely win elections, but can lose them. Her document was the turning point two years ago. Her U-turn over social care reforms dubbed a “dem...

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller warned that businesses could take a ‘wait and see’ approach to increased trade tensions between the U.S. and China.  A ramp up in U.S.-China trade tensions — which many are predicting in the wake of a new round of tariff threats from both sides — would immediately result in an economic crisis, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller. Shiller described recent statements from US President Donald Trump as those of "a showman" who "obviously relishes" celebrity, noting that the recent escalation in trade rhetoric could reflect the proximity of US midterm elections in November this year. The Yale economist criticized U.S. President Donald Trump during a Saturday interview in Beijing, calling the U.S. commander-in-chief “a showman” who “obviously relishes” celebrity, but acts in a way that’s “totally unbecoming for a president.” But he saved his strongest critique for the apparently increasing like...