FinPol Digest

  As Kamala Harris contends for the U.S. presidency, her foreign policy stance in the Middle East could bring sweeping changes. Her approach to Israel contrasts sharply with Donald Trump’s, who favored policies that Israeli leaders openly appreciated, such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Harris, by comparison, has taken a humanitarian stance, evident in her calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, signaling a shift from Trump’s hardline tactics. Harris's views have raised concerns among Israelis who feel her administration may pressure Israel on contentious issues. Trump, who unilaterally supported Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, was lauded in Israel for recognizing their control. Residents in the Trump Heights settlement view Trump as a stalwart ally, fearing that Harris could adopt a more traditional approach, emphasizing diplomacy and humanitarian concerns. The Palestinian perspective on the election highlights their struggle under U.S. policies. Many Palestinians ...

  Iran’s 200% increase in military spending is a monumental shift that may change the Middle East’s security dynamics for years to come. This bold budget increase reflects Iran’s commitment to strengthening its defense capabilities amid what it perceives as growing external threats, including pressures from Israel and the United States. In this new era of escalating military budgets, many are wondering if Iran’s actions will spur a new Middle Eastern Cold War, complete with an arms race and heightened tensions. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful entity in Iran’s defense apparatus, is set to benefit greatly from this increase. With expanded resources, the IRGC could ramp up its support for proxies across the region, from Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Yemen’s Houthi rebels. This potential increase in proxy funding risks intensifying existing conflicts and fueling new ones, as these groups are often involved in direct confrontations with Iran’s adversaries. Neighboring countri...

  An Overnight Surge in Tensions Israel’s pre-dawn strikes shook Iran’s capital and left the region on high alert. Targeting missile and air defense systems, Israel demonstrated its ability to penetrate deep into Iranian territory. The strikes highlight a worsening situation between these adversaries and mark a new phase of overt military actions. Precision Strikes on Key Facilities The Israeli military focused on high-impact sites, including facilities linked to missile manufacturing. This approach aimed to neutralize Iran’s immediate strike capabilities and limit its ability to launch attacks on Israeli soil. By choosing missile defense sites, Israel achieved maximum impact with calculated risks. Sites Israel Chose to Ignore Notably, the strikes avoided Iran’s oil and nuclear sites, which could have provoked a severe response. The restraint shown here likely reflects U.S. diplomatic influence, as President Biden has actively discouraged targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure. The...

 Following Israel’s weekend air attack on Iranian military facilities, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has declared that Iran will respond using “all available tools.” The statement, which he delivered at a televised news conference, hints at an intensified stance as Iran and Israel remain locked in a cycle of military exchanges. This escalation comes as Israel carried out three waves of strikes against Iranian missile production facilities and other sites. Although Iranian authorities initially minimized the damage from these attacks, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, later advised that Iran’s leadership should neither exaggerate nor downplay the severity of the situation. As Iran considers its response, regional and global implications come into focus. Iran has substantial influence in the Middle East, backing groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both of whom are already embroiled in intense conflicts with Israeli forces. This ...

  The Middle East witnessed a significant escalation on Saturday as Israeli strikes on Iran led to the deaths of four Iranian soldiers. The strikes targeted missile factories and other key sites, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and come as a response to Iran's missile barrage earlier in October. The initial Iranian assault, reportedly launched to retaliate against the killing of a prominent Hamas leader in July, saw around 200 ballistic missiles fired toward Israel. Though most were intercepted, some hit southern and central parts of the country, sparking an expectation of an Israeli response. This escalation has been met with global concern. In a relatively conciliatory message, Iran’s Foreign Ministry acknowledged its duty to regional peace while also asserting its right to defend itself. The United States, briefed beforehand on Israel’s response, had urged a restrained approach, which officials say Israel adhered to by avoiding strikes on nuclear or oil infrastruct...

 The airstrike that resulted in the deaths of three journalists in southern Lebanon underscores the increasingly dangerous landscape for media professionals covering conflicts in the region. On a fateful morning, an Israeli raid specifically targeted a compound housing journalists in Hasbaiyya, leading to the tragic loss of life and raising questions about the safety of those dedicated to reporting the truth. Eyewitness accounts reveal that the bungalow where the journalists were sleeping was a direct target of the airstrike, which contradicts claims of an indiscriminate military campaign. Imran Khan, reporting from the site for Al Jazeera, pointed out the lack of evacuation orders for Hasbaiyya, suggesting that the area was not a legitimate target within the context of ongoing hostilities. The attack has been denounced by various media organizations and governments, with Lebanese Information Minister Ziad Makary labeling it as a “war crime.” He articulated that this was not merely...

  Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent remarks have sounded the alarm for the international community. During a BRICS+ meeting in Kazan, Putin issued a stark warning: the Middle East is dangerously close to a full-scale war. The sharp rise in tensions between Israel and Iran, along with the spread of fighting from Gaza to Lebanon, has created a volatile situation. Putin, seated beside Chinese President Xi Jinping, shared his concerns about the growing confrontation between Israel and Iran. This rivalry, fueled by long-standing geopolitical and religious tensions, has been exacerbated by recent developments in the region. What began as localized skirmishes in Gaza has now expanded to Lebanon, drawing in other countries and creating a broader regional conflict. The degree of confrontation between Israel and Iran has increased sharply, according to Putin, and this escalation has the potential to trigger a chain reaction throughout the Middle East. Such a scenario could lead to wi...

  On Tuesday, the US Department of Justice filed charges against Ruhollah Bazghandi, a senior Iranian official in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), for his alleged role in a 2022 assassination plot targeting Iranian American activist Masih Alinejad in New York. The charges, including murder-for-hire and money laundering, are a chilling reminder of the lengths authoritarian regimes are willing to go to silence critics abroad. Alinejad, a vocal critic of Iran’s mandatory hijab laws and the government’s treatment of women, was the focus of the assassination plot. US officials have revealed that the plot was orchestrated by Bazghandi, along with other Iranian officials, who allegedly contracted members of an Eastern European criminal network to kill Alinejad. The case took a serious turn in July 2022, when one of the suspects, Khalid Mehdiyev, was arrested outside Alinejad’s home in New York with a loaded rifle. This arrest led to further investigations that exposed Bazghan...

  On an otherwise routine mission in the war-torn streets of Rafah, Israeli soldiers from the Bislach Brigade training unit unknowingly stumbled upon one of Hamas’s most wanted men: Yahya Sinwar. The Hamas leader had evaded capture for years, despite Israel’s significant resources deployed to find him. Yet, on that fateful Wednesday afternoon, a chance encounter sealed his fate. The soldiers were conducting searches in the Tal as-Sultan neighborhood when they spotted a small group of fighters moving between buildings. Among them was Sinwar, although the soldiers didn’t realize it at the time. Armed with drones, the patrol engaged in combat, exchanging fire with the group, which included the 62-year-old Sinwar. In the end, three fighters were killed, including the Hamas leader. Sinwar’s defiance in his final moments — throwing a stick at an Israeli drone before the building he was hiding in was shelled by tanks and missiles — epitomized his lifelong commitment to Hamas’s cause. For ...

  Yahya Sinwar, the powerful leader of Hamas who masterminded the surprise attack on Israel earlier this year, has been killed in a surprise encounter with Israeli forces. For over a year, Israeli troops and intelligence units hunted Sinwar across the Gaza Strip, deploying state-of-the-art technology and human resources. However, in a strange twist of fate, it was a regular patrol unit, not a specialized team, that eliminated the man responsible for the bloodshed that plunged Israel and Gaza into deeper conflict. Sinwar's killing by chance adds an almost ironic end to his leadership. Known for surrounding himself with hostages to avoid capture, Sinwar appeared confident in his strategy of survival. However, as reports suggest, Israeli forces were simply on routine patrol when they came across Sinwar and two other militants hiding in a building. After shells were fired, the militants were buried under the rubble. It wasn’t until later that Israeli forces confirmed through DNA testin...

  For decades, Hezbollah has positioned itself as a defender of Lebanon, particularly among the Shia community. In Beirut, this influence is palpable. From neighborhoods like Mar Elias, where Shia support is strong, to mixed communities, Hezbollah’s presence is seen as a bulwark against Israeli aggression and foreign domination. Netanyahu’s recent plea to the Lebanese people to turn against Hezbollah was largely ignored or dismissed in these areas. Hezbollah’s stronghold is not just military; it is deeply ingrained in Lebanon’s political, social, and economic landscape. Shia residents like Fany Sharara see Hezbollah as the only entity standing between Lebanon and complete destruction, in contrast to Netanyahu, who they perceive as an external aggressor with no stake in the well-being of the Lebanese people. Hezbollah's fighters, whose rockets signal the group’s ongoing resistance against Israel, are viewed as local heroes. The destruction of homes, as voiced by residents like Fadi ...

 As the U.S. gears up for its next presidential election, President Joe Biden’s strong stance on supporting Israel could have significant political implications, not just for his administration but for Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running to succeed him. Biden’s call to Prime Minister Netanyahu, where he reaffirmed his “ironclad” support for Israel, comes at a delicate moment—both domestically and internationally. The escalation of violence in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israeli military sites have forced the Biden administration into a high-stakes diplomatic game. While reaffirming U.S. backing for Israel’s security, Biden has also been cautious, warning against striking Iranian oilfields—a move that could drastically raise global oil prices and have direct consequences on the American economy. Such an economic shock could also impact Harris’s campaign, given how economic stability often plays a decisive role in U.S. elections. This situation put...

  Netanyahu’s warning to Lebanon, referencing the destruction in Gaza, puts a spotlight on the humanitarian costs of war in the region. Gaza’s ongoing bombardment by Israeli forces has devastated its infrastructure and displaced nearly its entire population. The implications for Lebanon, a country still recovering from multiple crises, are dire. The humanitarian toll in Gaza offers a grim preview of what could happen in Lebanon. With over 41,965 people killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health authorities, Netanyahu’s warning brings into focus the scale of destruction that Lebanon might face if it becomes a full-scale battleground once again. Israel’s military deployment and evacuation orders further raise concerns about the potential for large-scale civilian casualties in Lebanon. Lebanon’s healthcare system, already under strain due to political instability and economic collapse, would likely be overwhelmed by the consequences of an Israeli incursion. The situation in Gaza,...

 The renewed violence between Israel and Hezbollah has had devastating consequences for civilians on both sides of the border. Israel’s intensified bombing of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah’s missile attacks on northern Israel have resulted in significant civilian casualties and widespread displacement. Over one million people in Lebanon have been forced to flee their homes, according to local authorities, as Israeli airstrikes continue to target key infrastructure in the region. In the latest wave of airstrikes, Israel carried out more than 30 strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, marking the heaviest bombardment since late September. These attacks have damaged or destroyed essential infrastructure, including petrol stations and medical warehouses, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. The destruction of these vital facilities has made it even more difficult for displaced civilians to access basic necessities like fuel and medical care. The United Nations has ex...